Backtracking on that 377, no make that 219, tons of explosives
Published on October 29, 2004 By Daiwa In Politics
With real evidence, as opposed to wild-ass wishful thinking, beginning to mount that the 219 tons of explosives in question more likely were removed from the Al Qaqaa munitions depot before the invasion of Iraq, Kerry is subtly backtracking today.

That's right, I said 219 tons. Turns out 158 tons of the high explosives the IAEA says went missing were never at Al QaQaa, and that's according to the IAEA itself. But 377 tons sounds a lot scarier doesn't it? More on that later. No documentation has been provided by IAEA on the 158 tons of explosive allegedly missing from elsewhere in Iraq.

But back to the story. In a campaign appearance today, Kerry said, and I'm paraphrasing slightly, that the missing explosives are more important as a metaphor for Bush's failed policies in Iraq. He's saying, in effect, "Well, even if the story was wrong, it's still the metaphor it provides us that is the most important thing, telling us of the incompetence of this administration."

Does this sound a bit familiar? Something like, "Well, even if the documents are forgeries, the issues raised in the documents are still legitimate."?

This is the height of hypocrisy and demagoguery - taking an unsubstantiated, and most likely false, accusation and lecturing to us about what it tells us about the target of the accusation.

Back to "377 tons." Interesting, isn't it, that the NYT chose to banner that number, when it knew from the information leaked to it by the IAEA that the IAEA had provided no documentation on 158 of those tons, only that it had inventoried and confirmed 219 tons of high explosives at Al Qaqaa in January of 2003. Furthermore, no reliable inventory numbers are available for any time after January 2003.

"Bush supporters" have been accused here at JU of dreaming up all sorts of "conspiracy theories to explain away the fact that 377 tons of high explosives disappeared after the invasion, under Bush's watch." Just hold that thought for a moment.

The NYT publishes an article alleging a dereliction of duty on the part of our President based entirely on speculation, without any factual substantiation; Kerry repeats it on the campaing trail and Kerry supporters repeat it here. And "Bush supporters" have the burden of proof?

If you look objectively at what is public knowledge, there is not one iota of proof, no hard evidence, not even anything that qualifies as circumstantial evidence supporting the allegation that 377 tons of high exposives disappeared after the invasion, on Bush's watch. Zip.

The only evidence we have is the following:

1. The IAEA reports that 377 tons of high explosives are presently unaccounted for from stocks as inventoried in January of 2003, 219 of those tons having been documented as housed at the Al Qaqaa munitions depot as of that date.

2. The IAEA has documented that many of the bunkers housing high explosives had ventilation shafts, which were not sealed, large enough to permit removal of the explosives from the bunkers without disturbing the seals on main bunker doors.

3. The IAEA made a visit to Al Qaqaa in March of 2003 at which time they checked the integrity of some, but not all, of the seals that had been placed in January.

4. There are satellite surveillance photos of large vehicles & transporters being present at Al Qaqaa in the days immediately prior to the start of the invasion.

That's it. Everything else is wild-ass speculation or wishful thinking. There is NO evidence whatsoever presently available as to when after January 2003 the explosives were removed, who removed them, where they were taken or who currently has them in their possession. We don't even know that they still exist.

And onto this thin ice, Kerry has recklessly skated, using the NYT article as "evidence" of Presidential dereliction of duty. And when the only real evidence is revealed as not even remotely supporting the allegation, he compounds the demagoguery by saying, in so many words, "Well, the truth of the matter isn't what's important, it's how this is a metaphor for the failures of Bush's administration - that's what's important, so I'm going to use this false accusation in an effort to dupe you into voting for me, anyway."

Cheers,
Daiwa

Comments
on Oct 29, 2004
Great article Daiwa, as always. You articulated everything I have been ranting about to my husband for about 2 days now, only you were much more logical and coherent about it. Thank you for this insightful message.
on Oct 29, 2004
Yeah, Kerry's an idiot... anything new to report?
on Oct 29, 2004

That's it. Everything else is wild-ass speculation or wishful thinking. There is NO evidence whatsoever presently available as to when after January 2003 the explosives were removed, who removed them, where they were taken or who currently has them in their possession. We don't even know that they still exist.


if you'll go to Link youll see the video that accompanied the following story broadcast by peter jennings tonite (10/28/2004) on abc's world news tonite. 


Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by ABC television affiliate KSTP of St. Paul, Minn., which had a crew embedded with the 101st Airborne Division when it passed through Al-Qaqaa on April 18, 2003 — nine days after Baghdad fell.

Experts who have studied the images say the barrels on the tape contain the high explosive HMX, and the universal markings on the barrels are clear that these are highly dangerous explosives.


"I talked to a former inspector who's a colleague of mine, and he confirmed that, indeed, these pictures look just like what he remembers seeing inside those bunkers," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

The barrels were found inside sealed bunkers, which American soldiers are seen on the videotape cutting through. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency sealed the bunkers where the explosives were kept just before the war began.

"The seal's critical," Albright said. "The fact that there's a photo of what looks like an IAEA seal means that what's behind those doors is HMX. They only sealed bunkers that had HMX in them."

After the bunkers were opened, the 101st was not ordered to secure the facility. A senior officer told ABC News the division would not have had nearly enough soldiers to do so.

It remains unclear how much HMX was at the facility, but what does seem clear is that the U.S. military opened the bunkers at Al-Qaqaa and left them unguarded. Since then, the material has disappeared

earlier in the day, rudi giuliani stated something to the effect (another paraphrase) that it would have to have been the fault of the troops on the ground--rather than the command or the administration--if these materials werent secured. 

on Oct 29, 2004

Reply #3 By: kingbee - 10/29/2004 1:41:45 AM
That's it. Everything else is wild-ass speculation or wishful thinking. There is NO evidence whatsoever presently available as to when after January 2003 the explosives were removed, who removed them, where they were taken or who currently has them in their possession. We don't even know that they still exist.



if you'll go to Link youll see the video that accompanied the following story broadcast by peter jennings tonite (10/28/2004) on abc's world news tonite.


Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by ABC television affiliate KSTP of St. Paul, Minn., which had a crew embedded with the 101st Airborne Division when it passed through Al-Qaqaa on April 18, 2003 — nine days after Baghdad fell.

Experts who have studied the images say the barrels on the tape contain the high explosive HMX, and the universal markings on the barrels are clear that these are highly dangerous explosives.


"I talked to a former inspector who's a colleague of mine, and he confirmed that, indeed, these pictures look just like what he remembers seeing inside those bunkers," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

The barrels were found inside sealed bunkers, which American soldiers are seen on the videotape cutting through. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency sealed the bunkers where the explosives were kept just before the war began.

"The seal's critical," Albright said. "The fact that there's a photo of what looks like an IAEA seal means that what's behind those doors is HMX. They only sealed bunkers that had HMX in them."
After the bunkers were opened, the 101st was not ordered to secure the facility. A senior officer told ABC News the division would not have had nearly enough soldiers to do so.
It remains unclear how much HMX was at the facility, but what does seem clear is that the U.S. military opened the bunkers at Al-Qaqaa and left them unguarded. Since then, the material has disappeared
earlier in the day, rudi giuliani stated something to the effect (another paraphrase) that it would have to have been the fault of the troops on the ground--rather than the command or the administration--if these materials werent secured.


Alright then explain #4.

4. There are satellite surveillance photos of large vehicles & transporters being present at Al Qaqaa in the days immediately prior to the start of the invasion.


"The seal's critical," Albright said. "The fact that there's a photo of what looks like an IAEA seal means that what's behind those doors is HMX. They only sealed bunkers that had HMX in them."
Means no proof to me.
on Oct 29, 2004
kingbee -

I commented on this in another thread. This confirms that at least one bunker still had a seal on it on April 18, 2003, and that some barrels that "look just like what [Albright] remembers seeing inside those bunkers," were there.

That still does not constitute proof that all 219 tons were present on April 18 or who removed what when.

The full truth will ultimately be known, if we're lucky, and I'm all for letting the chips fall where they belong. The point is pretending we know the full truth now and using that pretention as a political weapon is wrong, as bad as CBS's use of the bogus Killian memos, and a news organization intentionally timing such a poorly, if not totally, unsubstantiated allegation to run 36-48 hours before the polls open is despicable and a blatant ploy to swing a close election toward a favored candidate.

And Giuliani, while taken out of context, was mistaken & as wrong as Kerry, in my opinion. He's still a great man, human like the rest of us.

Thanks for the video link, BTW, but it appears to be broken.

Cheers,
Daiwa
on Oct 29, 2004

Means no proof to me.


if you took time to view the video, youd see the seal being broken by us troops who then enter the building and examine the contents.  the containers are filled with something and the containers have very clear markings.  there's a possibility the video is a complete fraud being perpetrated upon the world by abc news and its affiliate station.  there's an equal possiblity that monkeys will fly outta rudi giuliani's butt.

on Oct 29, 2004

That still does not constitute proof that all 219 tons were present on April 18 or who removed what when


there were clearly not 219 tons of material in that building.  as i recall, abc had already established the fact the initial estimate was very high.  in any event, it appeared as if there was more than enough material to fill a one-car garage. 


sorry about the link (it must have worked for me due to browser caching).  go here Link and youll see a video link (click on the picture of the soldier opening a case of something). 

on Oct 29, 2004
Thanks for trying again, kingbee, but that link won't let me view the video without a RealNetworks/ABC subscription, so.... Of note, ABC's description of the video says only that it "appears to suggest..." and I applaud them for being professional & rational.

Cheers,
Daiwa
on Oct 29, 2004
there's an equal possiblity that monkeys will fly outta rudi giuliani's butt.


!! Don't wanna miss THAT!
on Oct 29, 2004
earlier in the day, rudi giuliani stated something to the effect (another paraphrase) that it would have to have been the fault of the troops on the ground--rather than the command or the administration--if these materials werent secured.


I have seen the video of this supposed blame. It is cut out of context and does not even contain the whole statement Guiliani made. It is a desperate attempt to smear him. I guess Billary is getting nervous about 08, and has to torpedo her main rival now.

And the pictures you quote? If you read the article, they said "they might be", but the image was not clear enough for any type of identification.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137017,00.html

Oh, but that is right. That is the right wing network! At least they are not the smear, lies, fraud and forgery network!
on Oct 29, 2004

Reply #6 By: kingbee - 10/29/2004 2:21:04 AM
Means no proof to me.



if you took time to view the video, youd see the seal being broken by us troops who then enter the building and examine the contents. the containers are filled with something and the containers have very clear markings. there's a possibility the video is a complete fraud being perpetrated upon the world by abc news and its affiliate station. there's an equal possiblity that monkeys will fly outta rudi giuliani's butt.


I'd be more inclined to believe this than the other!